Safeer's 2023 stock portfolio

Temperament in a volatile market

“Warren and I aren’t prodigies. We can’t play chess blindfolded or be concert pianists. But the results are prodigious, because we have a temperamental advantage that more than compensates for a lack of IQ points.”

― Charlie Munger

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To ring in the new year (a little late), I have updated my stock portfolio for 2023. Note: if you already use my M1 portfolio it will not auto-update and you will need to follow manual steps listed at the end.

2022 was even more interesting than 2021. I encourage you to re-read my post reflecting on 2021 and predictions for 2022. In it, I predicted:

Covid, remote work, labor shortages, housing shortages, inflation, interest rate hikes, supply chain crisis and affordability issues will present extremely volatile times the next few years. Challenges always bring opportunities and I am optimistic that the United States and American companies are well positioned to invest and tackle these issues.

My best guess for 2023 is that the financial markets will remain extremely volatile but ultimately flat, with a slight possibility of an increase. With higher interest rates, there is a large focus on value and operational efficiency. The US economy overall is still very strong, with record low unemployment rates and high consumer confidence. That is not to say that inflation has been tamed. I suspect there will be an acceptance of higher costs, as the labor market will be incredibly tight for the next decade due to baby boomers retiring, and overall de-globalization. Despite these challenges, I remain optimistic about the US economy.

My 2023 portfolio

Active investors statistically perform worse than passive investors. No one can time the market. That’s why majority of my portfolio follows the QQQ index, which contains the Top 100 of Nasdaq stocks including top tech companies (FAANG, etc). Because it’s a weighted index, well-performing stocks become a larger percent of the pie and those that decline fall out.

My basket of stocks contains:

• The top 70% of QQQ with a few filtered out (too much debt, etc)

• A few handpicked stocks across the technology sector that make up the remaining 30%.

My secret is simple: I buy every week. Consistency hedges against timing the market.

I also recommend you check out my personal finance guide: 101.finance.

If you already use my portfolio, below are some steps to update it:

1. Go to the link, make sure you’re logged in and click ‘Save to my account’

2. Then go to your M1 app, click ‘Manage pie’ -> ‘Edit pie’ -> ‘+’ Button

3. Go to the ‘My Pies’ tab, select ‘Safeer’s 2023 Portfolio’ and ‘Done’

4. Adjust the 2023 Portfolio to 100% and remove the old portfolio

It’s possible that M1 may produce a taxable event when updating it in this matter. I have provided the changes below if you’d like to manually update your pie.

Safeer